Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast & Market Prep
Issue 22 / What to expect Nov 18, 2024 thru Nov 22, 2024
In This Issue
Market-On-Close: All of last week’s market-moving news and macro context in under 5 minutes.
Special Coverage: Why are cocoa futes ripping?
The Latest Investor Sentiment Readings: Is a Santa-rally still on the table?
Institutional Support & Resistance Levels For Major Indices: Exactly where to look for a turn in markets this weeek
Institutional Activity By Sector: Our latest readings & why you need to watch this every week
Top Institutional Orderflow: All of the heaviest-hit individual names targeted by institutions this week on Lit & Dark exchanges
Investments In Focus: Bull vs Bear arguments for APP, DLTR, SILV, JGRO, FCX
Top Institutionally-Backed Gainers & Losers: A dreamy watchlist for day traders seeking high-volatility this week
Normalized Performance By Thematics YTD (Sector, Industry, Factor, Energy, Metals, Currencies, and more)
Key Econ Events and Earnings On-Deck For This Week
Also, in an effort to be on your platform of choice, I’m now posting regular updates to Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/volumeleaders.bsky.social . If you’re on a platform that I’m not yet covering, let me know!
Market-On-Close
Markets Take a Pause Amid Inflation Concerns and Fed Policy Outlook
The global financial markets encountered a momentary lull in momentum this past week, as investor focus shifted back to inflation data and Federal Reserve policy. After a period of robust post-election gains, the S&P 500 surrendered approximately 2% over the week. Despite this setback, the index remains up over 23% for the year and has gained over 1% since Election Day. The narrative driving market sentiment is multifaceted, touching on inflation trends, central bank decisions, tariff policies, and broader economic performance.
Inflation: A Mixed Picture
Inflation has once again taken center stage in market discussions. October’s consumer price index (CPI) data showed headline inflation rising slightly to 2.6% year-over-year, compared to 2.4% in the prior month. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 3.3%. While some components, such as energy, gasoline, and new vehicle prices, have eased, others like housing, rent, and motor vehicle insurance remain persistently elevated.
Progress in containing inflation is evident when compared to the 9.1% year-over-year peak reached in June 2022. However, the final leg toward the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target is proving to be challenging. Persistently high services inflation, driven by labor market dynamics, suggests that the path forward will be uneven.
Looking further ahead, economic growth is expected to moderate, potentially easing inflationary pressures. Should pro-growth policies materialize in 2025 or 2026, inflation may stabilize within the 2%–3% range. For long-term investors, such an outcome, coupled with stable wage growth, could be a positive development, avoiding the spikes in inflation that have plagued consumers in recent years.
Tariff Uncertainty and Inflationary Risks
A recurring theme in inflation discussions is the role of tariffs. While tariffs are often viewed as a tax on consumers, their long-term impact on inflation tends to be muted. Historical examples, such as the tariffs on washing machines in 2018, demonstrate this. Initially, prices surged following the imposition of 20%–50% tariffs, but over time, these prices normalized. In some cases, tariffs have even spurred diversification