Market Momentum: Your Weekly Financial Forecast

What to expect for June 10 - June 14, 2024

Jun 10, 2024

📈Top 5 Over 30📈

Here’s this week’s top 5 prints over the past 30 days for the major indices. These levels represent the top institutional presence in indices and tend to be natural magnets for prices, often acting as support or resistance. If you trade the corresponding futures products, you’ll find these useful as well. Mark these on your charts to stay on the right side of prices this week.

SPY 0.00%↑

It feels like we’re in the nosebleeds but buyers are still in control of all the technicals. We saw the 1.79M-buyer still present and defending (yellow circle). With a number of key economic events taking place this Wednesday, my personal expectation is to see further development/balancing over the HVN at the top of the volume profile (shown on the right in the image below); this theme is likely to persist across the major indices until the news resolves on Weds. If this thesis is correct, day traders should seek to fade extreme moves. Higher timeframe players should have a keen eye on $520.96 which represents the fairest price to do business (widest in the shown profile).

QQQ 0.00%↑

Tech has been re-ignited thanks to the move in the 10-year. I want to bring your attention to the two large prints protecting the gap (yellow circle). Fairest price is right below, as demonstrated by the amount of volume in the profile. Remember, while prints come in at a definitive price, large players are actually working zones to accumulate or distribute. That $452-area under the gap is one such zone that I think will be an important local inflection point. For now we must assume it’s supportive (green path) but if we see an impulse move through that zone to the downside, we want to be open to ideas of short-term weakness and start watching for the re-offer when tested from underneath (red path). Rates don’t always matter immediately to the market but participants have been paying close attention of late so we will be too.

IWM 0.00%↑

If there was ever a mystery, it’s whether small caps will be joining the party this week. Right now we’re seeing price grind it’s way back to the bullish gap (yellow rectangle) from the beginning of May. This is painting a bearish-looking wedge and none of the prints are holding. I would want to participate on the long side if we see an impulsive break of the down-trendline that re-captures and hold 203.19 on a test from above. If bulls fail to produce any upside tempo, the auction is likely seeking balance against $188 (see second image).

DIA 0.00%↑

The Dow also cooling a bit with some sideways action on higher timeframes. Locally, prior fair price at the highs (red circle) has been rejected. Price has now popped-up into a very clear LVN where the market thus far has has little interest in doing any business and is showing some early signs of rejection. In my opinion, the arrangements of the prints and the volume profile suggest supply is above and to continue hunting shorts on lower timeframes. This would remain my opinion until I saw more activity that suggested accumulation has developed under price OR longs re-capture $398.57 and hold on a test from above.

💰Mag7 MoneyFlow💰

When we look at moneyflow charts, we’re visualizing the aggregate institutional activity by price for a given period; we’re going to kick-off our first ‘Stack article with a more wholistic 2024 view. Moneyflow charts produce a visualization that resembles volume profiles and provides us with easy-to-see reference levels we can use to instantly measure buyer or seller success. If you are familiar with auction mechanics and volume profiling, you can apply the same principles here; otherwise, consider this a view into how market-moving-sized-players are positioned - use the widest and narrowest horizontal bars as pass/fail levels to position and define risk against.

🧹Last Week’s Ranked Sweeps🧹

Sweeps are large orders that are executed with urgency. They’re often split across multiple exchanges to take advantage of the best available prices and limit market-impact. Here we take a look at any sweeps that printed last week that are also a top-10 ranking trade on a per-ticker basis. Not every idea below is necessarily actionable but we sometimes see themes develop or specific tickers present themselves as clues to broader sector or market positioning ( VL Link )

💧Last Week’s Ranked DP Prints💧

Dark Pools are private exchanges where institutions can maintain anonymity and privately negotiate large deals without impacting markets. Below we are filtering for top-3 ranked DP trades to look for bulk inventory that is trying to be moved quietly. Again, not all ideas presented are actionable on their own. ( VL Link )